Baseball parlay

Welcome to Baseball parlay, the place with all of the baseball odds and betting information.

Welcome to Baseball parlay, the place with all of the baseball odds and betting information.

This site was created to give the baseball bettor everything he needs to successfully handicap a baseball game. Whether you need information on how a particular pitcher fares in day games or simply the latest lines, this is the place for all that information and more.

Baseball parlay News

MLB: Yankees Favored to Open Big Series
2008-08-26

The final regular season series ever at Yankees Stadium between New York and Boston commences Tuesday night. If the Bronx Bombers have any aspirations of still making a push towards the 2008 postseason, they’ll need to play their best series of the year. As a small favorite in Game 1 of the 3-game set, the Yanks will send Andy Pettitte to the hill to face off against Tim Wakefield. Over 90% of the early action at Sportsbook.com backs the hosts.

If there were ever a time to exercise ghosts from the past, now would be the perfect time for the New York Yankees. With Yankee Stadium wilting down to a few precious weeks before the final game is played at the famous ball park, maybe this would be the week to hang pictures throughout the stadium with Boston in town. Maybe banners with Bucky Dent’s face, Reggie Jackson, Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle plastered all over the place, to remind the Red Sox there is a reason why they have won only 37 percent of the time at Yankee Stadium over the last 85 years. With what is at stake for New York, it’s time to use every trick in the book.

The Yankees trail Boston by five games for the wild card spot and have to win a minimum of two games in this series to realistically hold on to any chance of snagging last postseason berth in the American League, with just over a month to go. Despite a mastery over the Red Sox for years, the magic ended when New York lost four straight in the 2004 ALCS to Boston. The Red Sox have gone on to win two World Series since then and the Bronx Bombers have lost four consecutive playoff series. For New York, this season it’s about just trying to extend 13-year run of October baseball.

“I feel like it’s a must-win series,” Andy Pettitte (13-9, 4.17, 1.344 WHIP) told the team’s official Web site. “I don’t necessarily feel like we need to sweep them, but I feel like we need to win the series.” Pettitte has a long history of success against the BoSox and is opening game starter. In the last 11 years, the left-hander is 16-7 versus Boston and his team has won 19 of his 28 starts. Sportsbook.com has New York as -155 money line home favorites and with total Un9.5. Since 1997, Pettitte and the teams he has pitched for are 52-18 as a home favorite of -150 to -200.

Boston will go for two virtual eliminations in a row, having taken down Toronto on the road, all but closing out what chances they had left and will try to do the same to the Yanks. You have to love managers like Terry Francona, who so desperately try to keep everything on even keel, even when they understand what is at stake. He knows this is big series and is trying to sell it like his club is playing Seattle this week, just with more people in the stands. “Because of the media and the fans, there’s more energy or electricity in the ballpark, but you can’t bring in a pitcher an inning earlier,” Francona said. “They don’t give you two wins when you beat the Yankees.”

Thanks for insightful information T.F., here is something that is useful for baseball bettors, Boston is 21-8 in road games when playing with a day off over the last three seasons. Tim Wakefield (7-8, 3.67, 1.177) will make first start since coming off the disabled list and has one win in last 11 starts (Boston 2-9) against the team in pinstripes. Another factor working against the knuckle-baller and his club is they have combined to produce 4-12 record against teams with winning record the last two seasons and are 0-8 in this situation if it occurs in the second portion of the season.

The total does cause confusion as to what way is best to wager. With Pettitte on the hill, manager Joe Girardi’s club is 17-5 Under. Boston is 16-5 Under as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 2006, when giving Wakefield the starting assignment. Just when this seems so cut and dry, you realize New York is 16-3 Over off two straight road wins against AL East rival over the last three years.

This heavyweight encounter can be viewed in local markets or on MLB.TV starting at 7:05 Eastern. These teams have split a dozen meetings in 2008.

StatFox Power Line – Yankees -114

MLB Top Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-22

We’re not quite to September yet and oddsmakers have already jumped the gun, having introduced pennant race betting lines into the fold early. So far in August, 59 games up through Thursday’s action had shown lines of -200 or higher on favorites. For the entire month of August in ’07, 29 games reached that point. There figures to be a number of more games with heavy chalk lines this weekend, especially in the N.L., where the two teams with the best records face off against a pair of the worst clubs. Here’s a look at those series’, along with the rest of the key action, plus our weekly feature highlighting some of the Top StatFox Power Trends affecting the weekend.

Of the six games on Friday with lines of -200 or higher, ALL of them are in the senior circuit. That is for good reason too, as most of the competitive series’ lined up are in the American League. The two N.L. matchups that figure to boast hefty lines for each game of the weekend are Washington at Chicago, and Pittsburgh at Milwaukee. In fact, the only series’ that figure to have any meaning to both teams are Los Angeles at Philadelphia, and Florida visiting Arizona.

However, in the junior circuit, there are several intriguing matchups. In Toronto, the Red Sox will take on the Blue Jays with the latter trying to make one last push to get back into the wildcard hunt. These teams will play 10 games against one another the rest of the way and 7-games separate them in the standings heading into this weekend’s series. Toronto has gotten hot of late, going 7-2 in its last nine games, but only managed to pick up a game in the standings during that stretch.

Elsewhere in the American League, division leaders will go head-to-head in Chicago, when the Rays hook up with the White Sox for three games. The hosts come off a 3-game sweep of Seattle and have now won six in a row at home to push their record at U.S. Cellular Field to 45-19. They are still just ½ game ahead of Minnesota though in the Central Division. Tampa meanwhile, has stretched its lead in the East to 4-1/2 games entering weekend play.

Finally, the Twins will head west to take on the Angels in Anaheim. The Halos are already counting down magic numbers, as their lead has ballooned to 15-games in the West. Their elimination number is 21. The Twins are ½ game out of the division race and tied for the wildcard lead. They have won seven of their L8 games while the Angels have only won twice in their last eight.

Here are this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends…

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-14 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

LA DODGERS at PHILADELPHIA
LA DODGERS are 1-9 (-8.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was LA DODGERS 2.4, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 1*)

HOUSTON at NY METS
HOUSTON is 24-11 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. The average score was HOUSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

PITTSBURGH at MILWAUKEE
PITTSBURGH is 10-37 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 6.3 - (Rating = 1*)

ATLANTA at ST LOUIS
ATLANTA is 1-11 (-10.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was ATLANTA 3.4, OPPONENT 7.3 - (Rating = 2*)

CINCINNATI at COLORADO
COLORADO is 9-14 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The average score was COLORADO 5.2, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)

FLORIDA at ARIZONA
FLORIDA is 29-13 (+18.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The average score was FLORIDA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 3*)

SAN DIEGO at SAN FRANCISCO
SAN DIEGO is 6-19 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.3, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)

NY YANKEES at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 10-33 (-18.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.2, OPPONENT 6.5 - (Rating = 1*)

BOSTON at TORONTO
BOSTON is 4-13 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BOSTON 3.8, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 3*)

CLEVELAND at TEXAS
TEXAS is 61-30 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. The average score was TEXAS 6.2, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)

DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
LEYLAND is 47-19 (+19.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more as the manager of DETROIT. The average score was DETROIT 6.4, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY at CHI WHITE SOX
TAMPA BAY is 8-27 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 6.2 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA is 27-9 (+21.8 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 5*)

OAKLAND at SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 17-40 (-24.7 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.8, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)

MLB: Does money buy happiness in MLB?
2008-08-13

In no other professional sport is the difference between the have’s and the have not’s so magnified as it is in Major League Baseball. While revenue sharing plans have helped, in no way have they come close to evening the playing field. Still, in looking at the current standings in baseball, does it really matter? Should the bettor be concerned as to a team’s payroll? The following study reveals some interesting numbers as to how a team’s payroll relates to its success both on the field and at the betting window.

In conducting this study, I simply took a list of the current team payrolls in Major League Baseball and compared the rankings to the team won-lost marks and betting returns. To simply, I grouped the teams into three tiers, the Top 10, the Middle 10, and the Bottom 10. It should be noted that all team records are as of entering play on Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the Top 10 teams in terms of 2008 payroll.
Tier 1 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
1. NY Yankees: $209,081,579, 63-56 (52.9%), -11.8 Units
2. Detroit: $138,685,197, 58-60 (49.2%), -12.6 Units
3. NY Mets: $138,293,378, 62-56 (52.5%), -7.7 Units
4. Boston: $133,440,037, 68-51 (57.1%), 5.6 Units
5. Chi White Sox: $121,152,667, 65-52 (55.6%), 9.6 Units
6. LA Angels: $119,216,333, 74-43 (63.2%), 23.8 Units
7. Chicago Cubs: $118,595,833, 71-47 (60.2%), 12 Units
8. LA Dodgers: $118,536,038, 59-59 (50.0%), -8.5 Units
9. Seattle: $117,993,982, 45-73 (38.1%), -29 Units
10. Atlanta: $102,424,018, 55-63 (46.6%), -16.2 Units
Total: 620-560 (52.5%), -34.8 Units

Tier 1 Team Summary: To no one’s surprise, the Yankees are far ahead of the pack in payroll at over $200M. Of course, their -11.8 units of loss for bettors this season are also 7th worst among the 30 clubs. Detroit is next highest in payroll, and 6th worst in betting return. As a whole, this collection of big market teams has combined to lose over 34 units of return for investors this season. Their 52.5% winning percentage ends up the highest of any of the three tiers, but the price tag attached certainly doesn’t justify it. Just on the surface, it seems that oddsmakers take payroll into serious consideration when building their lines. This group of clubs, other than Seattle and Atlanta, are often playing as overpriced favorites. Fading these teams consistently has produced a nice return.

Now, here are the Tier 2 teams with their respective payrolls, won-lost marks, and betting returns.

Tier 2 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
11. St Louis: $100,624,450, 66-55 (54.5%), 12.6 Units
12. Toronto: $98,641,957, 60-59 (50.4%), -7.8 Units
13. Philadelphia: $98,269,881, 64-54 (54.2%), -2.5 Units
14. Houston: $88,930,415, 59-59 (50.0%), 6.8 Units
15. Milwaukee: $81,004,167, 68-51 (57.1%), 10.1 Units
16. Cleveland: $78,970,067, 53-64 (45.3%), -21.2 Units
17. San Francisco: $76,904,500, 50-67 (42.7%), -9.2 Units
18. Cincinnati: $74,277,695, 52-67 (43.7%), -19.7 Units
19. San Diego: $73,677,617, 46-72 (39.0%), -30 Units
20. Colorado: $68,655,500, 53-67 (44.2%), -19.8 Units
Total: 571-615 (48.1%), -80.7 Units

Tier 2 Team Summary: The Tier 2 teams are a mostly collection of the league’s most disappointing teams of 2008, Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado most notably. Miwaukee is the biggest shining star on this list, playing 17-games over .500 with the league’s 15th biggest payroll. Overall though, this tier of teams has proven to be the most futile when it comes to producing at the betting window. Only the three teams from the N.L. Central Division, St. Louis, Houston, and Milwaukee have produced positive returns for their backers. It seems that “not going the extra mile” with these clubs’ rosters has taken its toll.

Finally, here are the Tier 3 clubs and their performance marks.

Tier 3 Payroll Teams
Rank, Team, Payroll, W-L (%), ML Units
21. Texas: $68,239,551, 61-58 (51.3%), 14.4 Units
22. Baltimore: $67,196,248, 56-61 (47.9%), 3 Units
23. Arizona: $66,202,713, 60-58 (50.8%), -9.8 Units
24. Minnesota: $62,182,767, 66-52 (55.9%), 17.8 Units
25. Kansas City: $58,245,500, 54-64 (45.8%), -0.9 Units
26. Washington: $54,961,000, 44-75 (37.0%), -18.7 Units
27. Pittsburgh: $49,365,283, 54-64 (45.8%), 1.8 Units
28. Oakland: $47,967,126, 54-63 (46.2%), -10.8 Units
29. Tampa Bay: $43,820,598, 71-46 (60.7%), 20.4 Units
30. Florida: $21,836,500, 62-57 (52.1%), 16.8 Units
Total: 582-598 (49.3%), +34 Units

Tier 3 Team Summary: With six teams producing positive returns at the betting window, and one other within -1 unit, the Tier 3 teams, or the lowest payroll group, have been the most rewarding thus far in 2008. In fact, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Florida, and Texas rank 1st through 4th on the list of MLB teams in betting return. These are clubs whose unproven players have truly come up big in ’08, and consequently, they currently find themselves in the thick of the pennant races. Again, with this group, it seems that oddsmakers have pre-adjusted their lines this season based upon the team’s payrolls. It’s refreshing however to see that not only are these clubs producing big dollars at the betting window (+34 units of return), a few of them are also potential playoff clubs currently leading their respective divisions.

I guess to answer the title question then, it seems there is only a marginal improvement in winning percentage for a larger payroll, while the majority of strong betting return comes from spotting those live underdogs with the diminutive bankrolls.