Baseball parlay

September 3rd MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball parlay, the place with all of the baseball odds and betting information.

Welcome to Baseball parlay, the place with all of the baseball odds and betting information.

This site was created to give the baseball bettor everything he needs to successfully handicap a baseball game. Whether you need information on how a particular pitcher fares in day games or simply the latest lines, this is the place for all that information and more.

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MLB: Line flips a sign of MLB things to come Tuesday?
2010-08-25

According to our friends over at Sportsbook.com, three of the games on Tuesday night’s Major League Betting board have seen their lines flip today, meaning one team opened as the favorite but is now the underdog. In each case, the road club was favored but has since ceded that role to the host. Let’s take a look at those three games and their corresponding line moves to see if we can’t benefit from our fellow bettors’ wisdom.

(911) ATLANTA (LOWE) at (912) COLORADO (DE LA ROSA) 8:40 PM

Sportsbook opening line: Atlanta -110, Currently: Colorado -109

Colorado’s 5-4 victory in the series opener on Monday gave the Rockies their first consecutive wins since a four-game streak July 29-Aug. 1.

Colorado pulled within six games of the Phillies in the wild-card race, but it wasn't the only team happy to see Philadelphia fall. The Braves (73-52) remained 2 1/2 games ahead in the NL East race thanks to the Phillies' defeat.

The Rockies had scored five runs in their previous four games.

Derek Lowe (11-11, 4.32 ERA) goes for the Braves. He is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last five starts against the Rockies, but 1-3 in his five most recent starts, and the Braves are 2-8 in his 10 second-half starts.

Lowe will be opposed by Jorge De La Rosa (4-4, 4.74), who was a hard-luck loser Thursday despite one of his best performances of the season. The left-hander held the Dodgers to two runs and five hits over seven innings, but Colorado mustered only two hits in a 2-0 defeat.

Bettors may be backing the Rockies based upon the following system:

StatFox Super Situation favoring COLORADO against the money line

• Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games. (102-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (58.6%, +30.1 units. Rating = 2*)

(915) CINCINNATI (WOOD) at (916) SAN FRANCISCO (SANCHEZ) 10:15 PM

Sportsbook opening line: Cincinnati -110, Currently: San Francisco -110

Reds rookie Travis Wood hopes to quiet San Francisco's bats and win his fifth consecutive start as Cincinnati continues its road trip on Tuesday night. However, he’ll have his hands full against a Giants lineup that scored 11 runs on 17 hits in the series opener.

The Reds (72-53) remain atop the NL in batting average (.271) and runs (617), and they averaged 5.9 runs while winning eight of nine before Monday's game.

The Giants (70-56), meanwhile, had totaled one run in their previous two games, but they scored five runs in the first inning of the 11-2 win. The victory opened a nine-game and pulled the Giants within one game of Philadelphia in the wild-card race.

San Francisco's hitters are in for a challenge as they face Wood (4-1, 2.51 ERA) for the first time. Opponents are hitting just .176 against the left-hander, but over the last couple of seasons, San Francisco has produced well for bettors against solid pitching:

• SAN FRANCISCO is 19-11 (+12.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Cincinnati is 14-5 on the road since the All-Star break, with slugger Joey Votto batting .406 with 16 RBIs in that stretch. That has helped the Reds take a 2 1/2-game division lead over St. Louis.

Cincinnati may have to operate with a depleted lineup Tuesday against San Francisco's Jonathan Sanchez (9-8, 3.47). Outfielder Jim Edmonds (strained oblique) and Laynce Nix (sprained ankle) both left Monday's game.

A Giants win would also end the Reds' streak of six consecutive series victories on the road - and San Francisco's string of three straight series losses overall. They have fared well vs. the Reds and their divisional counterparts this season:

SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 (+13.0 Units) against the money line against NL Central opponents this season.

The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.3, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

(929) TAMPA BAY (DAVIS) at (930) LA ANGELS (SANTANA) 10:05 PM

Sportsbook opening line: Tampa Bay -110, Currently: LA Angels -107

Tampa Bay has played well on the road against the Los Angeles Angels this year. The Rays, though, did not have to face Ervin Santana until now. The right-hander looks to remain perfect against the Rays in Anaheim while trying to help the Angels avoid a fourth consecutive home loss to the AL East co-leaders Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay (77-48) moved into a first-place tie with New York by winning its third straight, 4-3 over Los Angeles on Monday. It was the Rays' fifth one-run game in a row. That win streak however, leads bettors into a potentially profitable fade system for Tuesday:

• Play Against - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a marginal losing team (46% to 49%). (41-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.1%, +23.3 units. Rating = 2*)

Since losing six straight on the road to the Angels, the Rays have won three in a row in Anaheim this season. Three of the teams' four 2010 meetings have been determined by one run.

Santana has posted a 1.21 ERA in winning all three of his home starts against the Rays and has been outstanding of late, posting a 2.66 ERA in winning his last three starts. He has also done very good work against the league’s best:

• SANTANA is 10-2 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was SANTANA 5.5, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 1*)

Making his debut against Los Angeles, Tampa Bay's Wade Davis (9-9, 4.45) will come off the disabled list for his first start since Aug. 5.

MLB: Powerful bullpen system shows Nationals as play
2010-08-23

With manager Lou Pinella announcing his accelerated retirement on Sunday, it’s become official…the Cubs’ season is an utter mess, and the immediate future, meaning Monday night’s game in Washington, doesn’t look any better. Chicago is up against one of the more powerful bullpen betting systems that StatFox has to offer. It seems as if bettors are jumping on this opportunity too, as they have pushed what was an opening line of Washington -145 at Sportsbook.com all the way up to -160. It could go higher too, so turn your attention to this one before you miss out on a good price.

If you haven’t been following the Cubs lately, the 2010 season has become a train wreck. The roster has been decimated by trades, injuries, and overall poor play. At 23-games under .500, Pinella’s former team won just five of his last 25 games. In the most recent loss, yesterday at home to Atlanta, the Cubs’ bullpen was ravaged for nine runs in three innings of work. You have to wonder whether or not the 16-5 defeat may have made up Pinella’s mind earlier than expected.

At the same time, the Nationals’ bullpen has been pitching very well of late, and comes into Monday night’s contest with a respectable 3.55 ERA & 1.338 WHIP overall. In the last five games, the relief staff has yielded just three runs in 15 innings. That success leads to what has been a highly profitable StatFox Super Situation that could impact Monday night’s game. It reads as follows:

Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games.

(59-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +37.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -120.6

The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.5)

The situation's record this season is: (11-1, +8.5 units).

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-12, +15.8 units).

Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-89, +29.4 units).

In the Cubs' last visit to Nationals Park, they swept a Washington club playing its first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman. The Cubs are hoping for similar results in this season's trip to the nation's capital as they begin the post-Lou Piniella era. With coach Mike Quade taking over as interim manager, Chicago begins a six-game trip Monday against the Nationals.

With Quade moving from the third-base coaching box to the dugout for the rest of the year, the Cubs give the ball to rookie right-hander Casey Coleman (0-1, 7.82 ERA).

Coming off a 2-4 trip that ended with Sunday's 6-0 loss to Philadelphia, the Nationals (53-71) will counter with Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.06) as they open a seven-game homestand. The veteran right-hander, though, is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in his last three starts at Nationals Park after going 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in his first 10 home outings this season.

Hernandez, 11-6 with a 3.84 ERA against Chicago, receives among the lowest run support in the NL at 3.39 per game. Washington has scored four runs in his last three outings.

Washington has won four of six against Chicago since last season's matchup at Nationals Park.

Monday night’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET as part of a trimmed down betting board of 10 games for the night at Sportsbook.com.

MLB: Handicapping signs point to Johnson, Florida
2010-08-19

The Marlins and Pirates continue a 4-game set in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night and so far the teams have split two 6-run decisions, with Florida taking the latest encounter in shutout fashion on Tuesday night. That win, a key system, several strong trends, and stud pitcher Josh Johnson going for the Marlins are good signs of a potential repeat performance on Wednesday night. This game is certainly worthy of your consideration, both on the money line and run line. Sportsbook.com currently lists Florida as a -162 favorite, with an accompanying run line of -1.5 (-105).

Johnson didn't look anything like a Cy Young Award contender his last time out, failing to escape the fourth inning in his worst start in more than three years. The right-hander gave up six runs and 10 hits over 3 2-3 innings, failing to record a strikeout in a 7-2 loss at Cincinnati.

Following that rough outing with another seems rather unlikely, as he faces the Pirates and their NL-worst offense. Johnson's ERA has dropped from easily the best in the majors to fourth, but the Marlins (58-60) won't be surprised if he rebounds Wednesday at PNC Park. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.43 runs and hitting .241, both last in the NL.

The Pirates (40-79) mustered six hits against Ricky Nolasco and two relievers in a 6-0 loss Tuesday that evened the four-game set at 1-all. The Marlins held a closed-door meeting after Monday's 7-1 loss.

It's no surprise Pittsburgh has struggled to hit the premier pitching in the NL, but the numbers are still staggering. The nine pitchers other than Johnson that make up the league's top 10 in ERA are 8-2 with a 1.22 ERA in 12 starts against the Pirates.

Aside from who Pittsburgh faces, the presence of Ross Ohlendorf (1-9, 3.95) on the mound seems to guarantee the Pirates' bats will go cold. No starter who has pitched 50 innings has received less support than the 2.24 runs Ohlendorf averages.

The following money line system from FoxSheets gives Florida about an 80% chance of winning tonight, based upon Johnson’s prowess and Pittsburgh’s offensive ineptitude.

Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PITTSBURGH) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season. (68-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +40.9 units. Rating = 3*)

As indicated earlier, this is also a good potential run line spot, and a completely separate StatFox system will be looking for its seventh straight win behind the Marlins this evening:

Play On - Road teams against a 1.5 run line (FLORIDA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start. (47-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +33.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6.1 units).

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-8, +31.9 units).

Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-46, +37.5 units).

The powerful information doesn’t stop there though, as numerous trends seem to indicate that Pittsburgh is in over its head for tonight’s game:

• RUSSELL is 28-69 (-26.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.2, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

Of course, stranger things than a mild baseball upset on a Wednesday night in August have occurred in sports, but it certainly does look like as solid of a play as they come. We’ll see what happens when the Marlins and Pirates throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET tonight from PNC Park.

It’s Never Too Early for World Series Predictions
2010-08-19

The end of July unofficially signals the beginning of phase two of the Major League Baseball season. With the contenders definitively pulling away from the pretenders in each division, the playoff picture is starting to take shape, and baseball betting is watching.

The next few months will make or break each team’s chances, as history as proven that World Series winners are made in August and September—not born in April. (A perfect example would be the shocking 2007 World Series between the Red Sox and the Rockies, who amounted to virtually nothing for the first four months of the season, but got hot at the right time and rode their way to a World Series.)

Here’s a preview of what to expect come mid-October, with in terms of the four playoff teams from each league and a World Series winner.

AL West: Texas Rangers. Historically, the Rangers have had good starts to the season in recent years, but have tapered off and missed the playoffs altogether. This year is special for the Rangers, who have finally added some much-needed pitching in the form of Cliff Lee. With their batters hitting as well as they have, they should hold off an aging Angels team to secure a win in the AL West. The line at www.sportsbook.com agrees, as the Texas Rangers are heavy favorites right now at -10000.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox. With the possible addition of Edwin Jackson, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, the ChiSox would have the most well-rounded team in a weaker-than-usual AL Central. This isn’t a team that is going to scare many people, but they will beat the Twins for a playoff spot.

AL East: New York Yankees. Defense wins championships, and the Yanks have the best starting pitching in the division and have been consistent all season long. They have enough weapons to beat out the Rays down the stretch, if they can manage a stretch without two of their best starters.

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa’s lineup is just more intimidating than the Red Sox’s at this point, and they’ve proven they can win with this lineup, as seen in 2008.

NL West: San Francisco Giants. The Giants are playing like a World Series contender right now. Led by seemingly superhuman rookie Buster Posey and a downright filthy pitching staff, it’s only a matter of time before they catch up to the Padres, who have slowed their pace since getting out to a huge early season lead.

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals. This is going to be a closer race than many people expect, but the Reds’ pitching staff just isn’t up to the task of fighting off Pujols and his experienced crew. I expect the Cards to gain control and not let go next time these two teams match up. The line at www.sportsbook.com has the Cardinals as the favorite at -150 currently.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies. The Phils are starting to hit, and that spells trouble for their division rivals, given the addition of Roy Oswalt to the city of brotherly love. Without question, this is the best rotation in baseball, and if Chase Utley is a shadow of his former self when he returns from injury, this is still the team to beat.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves. This is a really well-balanced lineup with a good mix of experience and youth playing under manager Bobby Cox for his final season. A brutal wild card race is in store for a number of teams, but I see Atlanta coming out on top.

ALDS: Yankees top the White Sox in a sweep. Beyond Mark Buehrle, there’s nothing that the White Sox can throw out there that the Yankees can’t handle. This should be an easy week for New York.

ALDS: Texas over Tampa in seven. I predict this will be the most interesting playoff series we’ll see, so play close attention if and when it comes up. These are two dynamic teams with clear strengths all over the field. In the end, I give it to the team that has been the most aggressive in going out and getting a top-level starter for the playoff push.

NLDS: Philadelphia over St. Louis in six. The Cardinals have a lot of depth at the plate, but it’s all about starting pitching and timely hitting in the playoffs, and that describes Philadelphia to a T.

NLDS: San Francisco over Atlanta in five. The young guns take on the old guard in this one, and I have a sneaking suspicion that this series will signal the beginning of a long run for the Giants as a top contender in the National League. There’s just enough experience there to make me believe that their superior starters will be able to focus and pull through.

ALCS: New York bests the Rangers in five. You have to hand it to the “evil empire,” they know what they’re doing. The addition of Lance Berkman gives them depth that they haven’t had in a while—and they won the World Series last year.

NLCS: Philadelphia over San Francisco in six. There’s nothing quite like the same championship twice in a row, and it hasn’t happened in baseball since 1977-78. The experience that the Phillies have is just too much to overlook, especially with the addition of another World Series pitcher is Oswalt.

World Series. Philadelphia over New York in six. Put simply, the Phillies are the team getting hot and getting better at the right time of year. Despite their early season struggles, this team has proven that they are worth discussing as a true dynasty in a league that hasn’t produced more than a handful in the past 50 years. If I’m placing a bet today, Philadelphia has my money to win their second championship in three seasons.

AL Playoff Races
2010-08-19

Now that the All-Star game has passed and the trade deadline is approaching, all eyes in baseball are focused on the pennant races. As “the dog days of August” approach, here’s a look at what baseball fans can expect to see in the American League divisional and wild card races.

AL West: Texas has continued to separate from the rest of the pack, now holding a seven game lead over Los Angeles. Seattle has fallen 19 games back and is out of the race after a dismal offensive showing this season. For a while, it appeared to be a two-team race between Texas and Los Angeles, who has had a stranglehold on the division in recent years. However, Oakland has shown signs of life, winning 8 of their last 10 games to claw within 7 ½ games of Texas.

As of now, it appears to be the Rangers’ division to lose. Led by Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero, they have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their starting pitching has been decent but it got a huge boost with the addition of Cliff Lee, who will give them an undisputed ace with experience pitching in big games. The Angels figure to have a better shot than Oakland but they will need to start hitting and improve on their .257 team batting average. The bold acquisition of pitcher Dan Haren shows they haven’t given up. Despite this persistence, they can be expected to eventually fall short of Texas. The line at www.sportsbook.com on the Angles winning the AL West is +1500, and for a team who has won the division so many times as a baseball bettor you know they know how to win it.

AL Central: With three teams bunched within two games of the division lead, this may be the tightest division in all of baseball. The Chicago White Sox hold a very tenuous one game lead over Minnesota, with Detroit two back.

This one figures to be competitive all the way to the end as none of the three teams have a distinct advantage. The White Sox seem to be the most well rounded of any team, led by three very powerful bats and a well-balanced starting rotation. However, it’s been a few years since they’ve been in contention so there’s no telling how the inexperienced players will respond to the added pressure. Led by two of the best players in the American League, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, Minnesota knows what that feeling is like, too, having missed the playoffs every year since 2006. The Tigers have an MVP and Triple Crown candidate in Miguel Cabrera and will be desperately trying to atone for last year’s late-season collapse; the biggest question mark for them is inexperienced starting pitching. This division is so hard to call and it may even come down to the last day but in the end, I give a slight edge to Minnesota.

AL East: Few people would argue with the opinion that this is the best division in baseball, especially with three teams who can call themselves championship contenders. Unfortunately, only a maximum of two can make it to the playoffs so either New York, Boston, or Tampa Bay will be left out. The Yankees are currently in control of the division and it would be hard to envision them missing the playoffs altogether. They currently have the best record in baseball to go along with a potent lineup, a good corps of starting pitchers, and the best closer in baseball. Tampa Bay is three games behind them and holds baseball’s second best record. The Rays starting pitching has been outstanding and if their offensive production increases just a little, they could challenge the Yankees. The real unlucky team in this division is the Red Sox, who are eight games back but would be leading the AL Central with their 55-44 record.

The Red Sox could make a run at the division but in the end, their best chance will be to win the wild card. Their line at www.sportsbook.com is +3000 to win the AL East this year, which is a very intriguing baseball bet. If they do end up as the wild card that leaves the Yankees and Rays for the division and I smell an upset here. The Rays have been one of the top two teams in baseball thus far with an offense that has largely underachieved. If players like Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett can get things going, the Rays will win at a greater pace than before. The Yankees just lost Andy Pettitte to the DL and it’s unclear how long he’ll be out; he has been the Yankees best pitcher and his absence could really hurt. Also, the Yankees are an older team and in the past, they’ve begun to rest players once it’s clear they’ll make the playoffs. If they clinch a playoff spot early and the past holds, they may ultimately not care if they’re the AL East champion or Wild Card winners.
Wild Card: That effectively leaves the Red Sox and Yankees for the wild card.

Although other teams are within range of the Red Sox, it’s unlikely that they’ll sustain the same pace for an entire year. The Red Sox have tremendous team power and a good group of starting pitchers but they’ve simply had too many injuries this year. Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were supposed to be big contributors on the mound but have missed significant time, as have Jacoby Ellsbury and former MVP Dustin Pedroia. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Red Sox make a run but the injuries have caused a deficit to the Yankees that will ultimately be too much to overcome.